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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."