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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.